The lottery is a popular gambling game where multiple people buy tickets for a chance to win a prize that could be worth millions of dollars. It is commonly run by state governments. People in the United States spent upwards of $100 billion on lottery tickets in 2021, making it one of the most popular forms of gambling in the country. But just how meaningful that revenue is in the broader context of state budgets, and whether it’s really worth the trade-off to people who lose money, is debatable.
Many states justify introducing lotteries by saying they provide a low-risk source of state revenue. The argument goes that because the chances of winning a large sum are slim, it is reasonable to ask citizens to voluntarily invest small amounts in the lottery to help fund their state government, as long as there is an explicit promise that funds will be used for a public purpose, such as education or road repairs.
But while the likelihood of a person winning is indeed slim, mathematicians point out that no matter how many tickets someone purchases, or how often they purchase them, they do not increase their chances of winning, since each lottery drawing has its own independent probability, which is not affected by the frequency of play or the number of other tickets purchased for the same drawing.
Further, studies show that state lottery popularity has little to do with the state’s objective fiscal health, and in fact is highest when governments are facing a need for tax increases or cuts. In addition, critics point out that the lottery attracts disproportionately low-income people, who as a group contribute billions in foregone savings they could be using to pay down debt or save for retirement.